"Make a bet every day, otherwise you might walk around lucky and never know it." - Jimmy Jones
It has always been my conviction that a better understanding of anything that influences our game of poker leads to a stronger game. So, with this post I am launching a new book review category: Luck, Chance & Probability. I have always been fascinated with the strangeness of chance, unlikely events, probabilities, and the phenomenon of luck.
Whether roaming through life or through a casino, I am always keen on bending good luck in my direction. Sometimes I am successful, most times not. But, I keep searching for that greater understanding that will give me the right edge at the right time. I often wonder if such an understanding can be achieved. I believe so. And, I think it will take a mathematician to guide the quest. So, here goes.
In his book, Chance: A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market, and Just About Everything Else, Amir D. Aczel
Throughout the book there are numerous revelations and curiosities. Here are a few I found very interesting:
1) "Probability is humanity's attempt to understand the uncertainty of the universe, to define the indefinable." Page 1.
2) "Given infinite time (whatever that means), a monkey will type the entire Shakespearean tragedy. And not just that, he'll type it an infinite number of times. And he'll type it an infinite number of times backwards." Page 37.
3) "This is a useful rule to remember, and it has a nice moral: keep trying, and you will succeed!" Page 39.
4) "Even more surprising, when fifty-six people are present in a room, there is a ninety-nine percent probability that at least two of them share a birthday!" Page 71.
5) "Be it chess, bridge, or war, surprise is an immensely important element in a game." Page 93.
6) "Chance remains forever untamable, for fate does what it wants to us and to the world around us." Page 119.
Aczel's book is an easy and entertaining read. Packed full of enlightening information that helps to explain some of the mysteries of life and gambling.
Are there any lessons about how to be luckier? Or, less unlucky? Anything at all? Well, maybe there is this: simply understanding and accepting that chance is a part of our universe is a good beginning. We confront chance, or vise versa, everyday and stuff happens. Right? So, maybe the critical path toward a greater understanding is to recognize when chance has a high likelihood of affecting an outcome (which we can call risk). Learn to assess the risk. Then, learn when to avoid, and when to embrace that risk. Hopefully, you will become both a little luckier and a little less unlucky.
Or, as they say, perhaps luck is mostly about being in the right place at the right time, and not in the wrong place at the wrong time. Or, maybe luck is mostly about boldly seizing an opportunity. Or, could it be about following your heart? Or, your head? Or, your gut? Surely, there is a grain of truth in all these cliches.
Many believe we make our own good luck, or at least we can choose to avoid a lot of bad luck. The formula is simple enough: make a well-informed decision factoring in the correct amounts of caution, courage, and boldness. Then, proceed accordingly. Either you will attract good luck, or good luck will seek you out, or at least you will sidestep most bad luck. This technique is, you will notice, based upon good information, good decision making, and the will to follow through. Literally, in this model, we create our own good luck. The operating keys are to gain good information, and to make good decisions. In poker these are, of course, the acknowledged, principal tasks for winning play.
Still in poker, you can do everything right and suffer a string of bad beats. Well, it is gambling, after all. So, a good understanding of probability theory can help you to quickly shrug off such bad luck. Since you will have come to understand the universal truth that anything is possible, no matter how unlikely. Chance and chaos are always around, and always at work. This knowledge can help you to maintain mental equilibrium and avoid tilt. And, also help to maintain your confidence. By having the certain knowledge that if you continue to make correct decisions, in the long run you will be a winner.
Yet, I continue to wonder if there is not more. Is there not a key for unlocking the entire riddle of good luck? Or, is good luck even a riddle? Maybe we will find more answers in the next book.
And, before you place a book order, look at the Free Offers page.
R. Steve McCollum
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Order these books from Amazon.com. You can be certain of amazingly low prices, oftentimes free shipping, and really fast service.
Want to unravel the riddle of good luck? You really can. Any of these books would be a good start.
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Copyright 2009 R. Steve McCollum
