Time to review another book about luck, chance, and probability. Have you ever suffered from that bankroll killer called 'variance'? You know what I mean - bad luck, bad beats, and suck-outs that plague us day after day, after day. There is no (socially acceptable) cure for this disease, but there is better understanding. In his book, What Are The Odds?: Chance In Everyday Life
Here are a few gems of wisdom and knowledge to be found in Orkin's book:
1) "We live in a world of uncertainty and variation, a world that expresses itself in a cosmic mosaic of ever changing patterns." Page 1.
2) "Games of chance provide metaphors for life's uncertainties." Page 2.
3) "If there is a cosmic grand plan that determines reality, chance is a tool for implementing that plan." Page 3.
4) "...luck is a group phenomenon: For every lucky jackpot winner there is a multitude of losers." Page 6.
5) "Even though it's theoretically possible, getting 100 heads in 100 tosses is, for all practical purposes, impossible. If the 6 billion people now on earth had been doing this since the beginning of the universe, it's unlikely that anyone would have yet come up with 100 heads in 100 tosses." Page 14.
6) "Although it is theoretically possible for things in the universe to get more orderly, they eventually get disorderly, simply because disorder can happen in more ways than order." Page 15. (My note - think Murphy's law.)
7) "The law of averages is a limit theorem: It states precisely what will happen in an infinite number of observations, something we will never see. When we talk about the long run in practical terms, we mean a large but finite number of observations, and so we must allow for chance variation. Chance variation is best understood in the context of how things vary around the average value." Page 26. (My note - substitute 'suck-outs' for 'chance variation'.)
8) "Chance variation is conveniently measured by standard deviation...Roughly, SD measures how far a typical occurrence of a random process will be from the average." Page 27.
9) "Roulette is a game of pure chance (no skill, none whatsoever), with a house edge of 5.3 percent. It is mathematically impossible to win in the long run, no matter what strategy you use." Page 65.
10) "Zero-sum games are purely competitive: One player's gain is the other's loss. In this environment it's prudent to assume that your opponent is an intelligent and merciless adversary." Page 107. (My note - that's poker folks.)
If you are in need of a refresher on chance, probability, and games, What Are The Odds?: Chance In Everyday Life
And, before you place a book order, look at the Free Offers page.
R. Steve McCollum
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Order these books from Amazon.com. You can be certain of amazingly low prices, oftentimes free shipping, and really fast service.
Want to unravel the riddle of good luck? You really can. Any of these books would be a good start.
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Copyright 2009 R. Steve McCollum
